Jacob Rogers
T, USC · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #52 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2004 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2004.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #48 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#52).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.30 40-yard dash at 307 lbs: faster than 28% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2004 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 307 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.30 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #48 overall (#4 T) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 49 | Keiwan Ratliff | redraft #113 |
| 50 | Devery Henderson | redraft #43 |
| 51 | Dwan Edwards | redraft #58 |
| 53 | Michael Boulware | redraft #89 |
| 54 | Darius Watts | redraft #143 |
| 55 | Greg Jones | redraft #106 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.