Jerrel Jernigan
WR, Troy · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #83 (NYG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 34 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#83).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Troy: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 185 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 34 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 61 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 38 rec, 391 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 185 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 80 | Chris Culliver | redraft #95 |
| 81 | DeMarcus Van Dyke | redraft #173 |
| 82 | Vincent Brown | redraft #114 |
| 84 | Mason Foster | redraft #37 |
| 85 | Jah Reid | redraft #110 |
| 86 | Allen Bailey | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.