Vincent Brown
WR, San Diego St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #82 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #92 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#82).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 2% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2015 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Receiving | 73 rec, 941 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.64 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #92 overall (#13 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 79 | Leonard Hankerson | redraft #97 |
| 80 | Chris Culliver | redraft #95 |
| 81 | DeMarcus Van Dyke | redraft #173 |
| 83 | Jerrel Jernigan | redraft #178 |
| 84 | Mason Foster | redraft #37 |
| 85 | Jah Reid | redraft #110 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.