Allen Bailey
DE, Miami (FL) · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #86 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#86). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 285 lbs: faster than 83% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 133 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2020 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 133 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 34 |
| Defense | 164 tackles, 22 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 285 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.43 s |
| Shuttle | 4.56 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#13 DE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 83 | Jerrel Jernigan | redraft #178 |
| 84 | Mason Foster | redraft #37 |
| 85 | Jah Reid | redraft #110 |
| 87 | Drake Nevis | redraft #158 |
| 88 | Johnny Patrick | redraft #160 |
| 89 | Shareece Wright | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.