Drake Nevis
DT, LSU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #87 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 26 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~54%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #114 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#87).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 294 lbs: faster than 25% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 26 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 27 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 294 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.71 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #114 overall (#11 DT) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 84 | Mason Foster | redraft #37 |
| 85 | Jah Reid | redraft #110 |
| 86 | Allen Bailey | redraft #46 |
| 88 | Johnny Patrick | redraft #160 |
| 89 | Shareece Wright | redraft #73 |
| 90 | Curtis Marsh | redraft #187 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.