Johnny Patrick
DB, Louisville · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #88 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#88).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 191 lbs: faster than 13% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 37 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 37 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 62 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 191 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Arm / hand | 30" / 8.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#7 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 85 | Jah Reid | redraft #110 |
| 86 | Allen Bailey | redraft #46 |
| 87 | Drake Nevis | redraft #158 |
| 89 | Shareece Wright | redraft #73 |
| 90 | Curtis Marsh | redraft #187 |
| 91 | Akeem Dent | redraft #80 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.