Jason Brown
C, North Carolina · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #124 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2011 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #102 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#124). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.40 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 11% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.40 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.72 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #102 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 121 | Stefan Lefors | redraft #228 |
| 122 | Duke Preston | redraft #112 |
| 123 | Kerry Rhodes | redraft #25 |
| 125 | Brady Poppinga | redraft #73 |
| 126 | Todd Herremans | redraft #20 |
| 127 | Alvin Pearman | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.