Alvin Pearman
RB, Virginia · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #127 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2009 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #149 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#127).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 19% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 58 att, 238 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 36 rec, 276 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #149 overall (#16 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 124 | Jason Brown | redraft #61 |
| 125 | Brady Poppinga | redraft #73 |
| 126 | Todd Herremans | redraft #20 |
| 128 | Chauncey Davis | redraft #86 |
| 129 | Dylan Gandy | redraft #91 |
| 130 | Darren Sproles | redraft #14 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.