Brady Poppinga
LB, BYU · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #125 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #224 (#20 at his position); he went #125, 99 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 259 lbs: faster than 71% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2012 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Defense | 226 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 259 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.27 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #224 overall (#20 LB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 122 | Duke Preston | redraft #112 |
| 123 | Kerry Rhodes | redraft #25 |
| 124 | Jason Brown | redraft #61 |
| 126 | Todd Herremans | redraft #20 |
| 127 | Alvin Pearman | redraft #141 |
| 128 | Chauncey Davis | redraft #86 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.