Duke Preston
C, Illinois · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #122 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2008 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #340 (#13 at his position); he went #122, 218 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Illinois: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 311 lbs |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 96" |
| 3-cone | 7.57 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #340 overall (#13 C) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 119 | Eric Ghiaciuc | redraft #89 |
| 120 | Manuel White | redraft #227 |
| 121 | Stefan Lefors | redraft #228 |
| 123 | Kerry Rhodes | redraft #25 |
| 124 | Jason Brown | redraft #61 |
| 125 | Brady Poppinga | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.