Darren Sproles
RB, Kansas St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #130 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #99 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#130). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 69% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 183 of ~240 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2019 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 183 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 62 |
| Rushing | 732 att, 3,552 yds, 23 TD |
| Receiving | 553 rec, 4,840 yds, 32 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 6", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 3.96 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #99 overall (#11 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 127 | Alvin Pearman | redraft #141 |
| 128 | Chauncey Davis | redraft #86 |
| 129 | Dylan Gandy | redraft #91 |
| 131 | Fred Gibson | redraft #229 |
| 132 | Chris Canty | redraft #32 |
| 133 | James Sanders | redraft #72 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.