Jason Avant
WR, Michigan · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #109 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 148 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2015 (~93%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #90 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#109). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 5% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 148 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 346 rec, 4,118 yds, 13 TD |
| Defense | 22 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #90 overall (#9 WR) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 106 | Garrett Mills | redraft #199 |
| 107 | Gabe Watson | redraft #120 |
| 108 | Jahri Evans | redraft #1 |
| 110 | Leon Williams | redraft #130 |
| 111 | Demetrius Williams | redraft #129 |
| 112 | Isaac Sowells | redraft #183 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.