Garrett Mills
FB, Tulsa · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #106 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2010 (~20%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #137 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#106).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulsa: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 17% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 16 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 110 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.05 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #137 overall (#1 FB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 103 | Brad Smith | redraft #100 |
| 104 | Cory Rodgers | redraft #227 |
| 105 | Ko Simpson | redraft #116 |
| 107 | Gabe Watson | redraft #120 |
| 108 | Jahri Evans | redraft #1 |
| 109 | Jason Avant | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.