Gabe Watson
DT, Michigan · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #107 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #41 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #107: teams let him slide 66 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.27 40-yard dash at 339 lbs: faster than 5% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 62 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2010 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 62 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Defense | 81 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 339 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.27 s |
| Bench press | 36 reps |
| Vertical | 25" |
| Broad jump | 96" |
| 3-cone | 8.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.8 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #41 overall (#3 DT) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 104 | Cory Rodgers | redraft #227 |
| 105 | Ko Simpson | redraft #116 |
| 106 | Garrett Mills | redraft #199 |
| 108 | Jahri Evans | redraft #1 |
| 109 | Jason Avant | redraft #73 |
| 110 | Leon Williams | redraft #130 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.