Demetrius Williams
WR, Oregon · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #111 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2010 (~58%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #45 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #111: teams let him slide 66 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 29% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Receiving | 63 rec, 1,008 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 6.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #45 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 108 | Jahri Evans | redraft #1 |
| 109 | Jason Avant | redraft #73 |
| 110 | Leon Williams | redraft #130 |
| 112 | Isaac Sowells | redraft #183 |
| 113 | Victor Adeyanju | redraft #108 |
| 114 | Joe Toledo | redraft #228 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.