J.J. Arrington
RB, California · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #44 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#44).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 214 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2008 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 183 att, 654 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 91 rec, 693 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 214 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 41 | Michael Roos | redraft #13 |
| 42 | Kevin Burnett | redraft #41 |
| 43 | Corey Webster | redraft #57 |
| 45 | Lofa Tatupu | redraft #23 |
| 46 | Matt Roth | redraft #70 |
| 47 | Mike Nugent | redraft #80 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.