Lofa Tatupu
LB, USC · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #45 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 84 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2010 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #137 (#6 at his position); he went #45, 92 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 238 lbs: faster than 8% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 84 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Defense | 410 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 10 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 238 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.31 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #137 overall (#6 LB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 42 | Kevin Burnett | redraft #41 |
| 43 | Corey Webster | redraft #57 |
| 44 | J.J. Arrington | redraft #107 |
| 46 | Matt Roth | redraft #70 |
| 47 | Mike Nugent | redraft #80 |
| 48 | Odell Thurman | redraft #131 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.