Matt Roth
DE, Iowa · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #46 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 96 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2011 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 278 lbs: faster than 67% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 96 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Defense | 216 tackles, 23.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 278 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 43 | Corey Webster | redraft #57 |
| 44 | J.J. Arrington | redraft #107 |
| 45 | Lofa Tatupu | redraft #23 |
| 47 | Mike Nugent | redraft #80 |
| 48 | Odell Thurman | redraft #131 |
| 49 | Marcus Johnson | redraft #126 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.