Greg Little
WR, North Carolina · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #59 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #58 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#59).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 54 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 54 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 30 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 161 rec, 1,890 yds, 8 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 6.8 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #58 overall (#7 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 56 | Shane Vereen | redraft #62 |
| 57 | Mikel Leshoure | redraft #135 |
| 58 | Torrey Smith | redraft #38 |
| 60 | Brandon Harris | redraft #172 |
| 61 | Jonas Mouton | redraft #223 |
| 62 | Daniel Thomas | redraft #103 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.