Daniel Thomas
RB, Kansas St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #62 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #70 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#62).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 21% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 52 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 52 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Rushing | 409 att, 1,480 yds, 10 TD |
| Receiving | 55 rec, 412 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Arm / hand | 32.29" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #70 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 59 | Greg Little | redraft #93 |
| 60 | Brandon Harris | redraft #172 |
| 61 | Jonas Mouton | redraft #223 |
| 63 | Marcus Gilbert | redraft #40 |
| 64 | Randall Cobb | redraft #18 |
| 65 | Terrell McClain | redraft #84 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.