Torrey Smith
WR, Maryland · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #58 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 119 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~93%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #53 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#58). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Maryland: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 74% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 119 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 37 |
| Rushing | 8 att, 45 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 319 rec, 5,141 yds, 41 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.72 s |
| Shuttle | 4.13 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 8.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #53 overall (#6 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 55 | Rodney Hudson | redraft #22 |
| 56 | Shane Vereen | redraft #62 |
| 57 | Mikel Leshoure | redraft #135 |
| 59 | Greg Little | redraft #93 |
| 60 | Brandon Harris | redraft #172 |
| 61 | Jonas Mouton | redraft #223 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.