Evan Royster
RB, Penn St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #177 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #313 (#29 at his position); he went #177, 136 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Rushing | 81 att, 416 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 25 rec, 180 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.6" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #313 overall (#29 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 174 | Charles Clay | redraft #54 |
| 175 | Byron Stingily | redraft #156 |
| 176 | Dwayne Harris | redraft #99 |
| 178 | Aldrick Robinson | redraft #100 |
| 179 | Caleb Schlauderaff | redraft #204 |
| 180 | Tyrod Taylor | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.