Charles Clay
TE, Tulsa · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #174 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 127 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2019 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #157 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#174). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulsa: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 245 lbs: faster than 61% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 127 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Rushing | 7 att, 15 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 357 rec, 3,868 yds, 24 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 245 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #157 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 171 | Quan Sturdivant | redraft #236 |
| 172 | Brandon Fusco | redraft #43 |
| 173 | Byron Maxwell | redraft #71 |
| 175 | Byron Stingily | redraft #156 |
| 176 | Dwayne Harris | redraft #99 |
| 177 | Evan Royster | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.