Aldrick Robinson
WR, SMU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #178 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #166 (#20 at his position), close to where he went (#178). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
SMU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.35 40-yard dash at 184 lbs: faster than 89% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 82 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 10 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 86 rec, 1,422 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 184 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.35 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.4" / 8.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #166 overall (#20 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 175 | Byron Stingily | redraft #156 |
| 176 | Dwayne Harris | redraft #99 |
| 177 | Evan Royster | redraft #154 |
| 179 | Caleb Schlauderaff | redraft #204 |
| 180 | Tyrod Taylor | redraft #28 |
| 181 | Richard Gordon | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.