Coty Sensabaugh
DB, Clemson · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #115 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #126 (#18 at his position), close to where he went (#115). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 96% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 107 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2019 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 107 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Defense | 220 tackles, 1 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.6 s |
| Shuttle | 4.06 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #126 overall (#18 DB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 112 | Bobby Massie | redraft #37 |
| 113 | Kyle Wilber | redraft #101 |
| 114 | Jaye Howard | redraft #92 |
| 116 | Orson Charles | redraft #180 |
| 117 | Joe Looney | redraft #79 |
| 118 | Jarius Wright | redraft #71 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.