Orson Charles
TE, Georgia · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2018 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #83 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #116: teams let him slide 33 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 49% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 14 rec, 185 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Bench press | 35 reps |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #83 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 113 | Kyle Wilber | redraft #101 |
| 114 | Jaye Howard | redraft #92 |
| 115 | Coty Sensabaugh | redraft #82 |
| 117 | Joe Looney | redraft #79 |
| 118 | Jarius Wright | redraft #71 |
| 119 | Keenan Robinson | redraft #90 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.