Jarius Wright
WR, Arkansas · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #118 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 111 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2019 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #125 (#18 at his position), close to where he went (#118). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 182 lbs: faster than 80% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 111 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| Rushing | 11 att, 143 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 224 rec, 2,782 yds, 11 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 182 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.03 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 8.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #125 overall (#18 WR) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 115 | Coty Sensabaugh | redraft #82 |
| 116 | Orson Charles | redraft #180 |
| 117 | Joe Looney | redraft #79 |
| 119 | Keenan Robinson | redraft #90 |
| 120 | James-Michael Johnson | redraft #115 |
| 121 | Keshawn Martin | redraft #138 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.