Cody Kessler
QB, USC · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #93 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #209 (#10 at his position); he went #93, 116 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~35%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 28% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.0 |
| Passing | 224/349, 2,215 yds, 8 TD, 5 INT |
| Rushing | 31 att, 140 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 104" |
| 3-cone | 7.32 s |
| Shuttle | 4 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.75" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #209 overall (#10 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 90 | C.J. Prosise | redraft #154 |
| 91 | Jacoby Brissett | redraft #36 |
| 92 | Brandon Williams | redraft #163 |
| 94 | Nick Vannett | redraft #138 |
| 95 | Graham Glasgow | redraft #34 |
| 96 | Vincent Valentine | redraft #185 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.