Brandon Williams
CB, Texas A&M · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #92 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #337 (#38 at his position); he went #92, 245 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 90% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 51 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2020 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 51 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.0 |
| Defense | 33 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #337 overall (#38 CB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 89 | Javon Hargrave | redraft #20 |
| 90 | C.J. Prosise | redraft #154 |
| 91 | Jacoby Brissett | redraft #36 |
| 93 | Cody Kessler | redraft #159 |
| 94 | Nick Vannett | redraft #138 |
| 95 | Graham Glasgow | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.