Vincent Valentine
DT, Nebraska · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #96 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #186 (#22 at his position); he went #96, 90 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~33%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.19 40-yard dash at 329 lbs: faster than 9% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 16 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 329 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.19 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 8.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.59 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #186 overall (#22 DT) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 93 | Cody Kessler | redraft #159 |
| 94 | Nick Vannett | redraft #138 |
| 95 | Graham Glasgow | redraft #34 |
| 97 | Rees Odhiambo | redraft #167 |
| 98 | Justin Simmons | redraft #18 |
| 99 | Joe Schobert | redraft #49 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.