Joe Schobert
OLB, Wisconsin · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #99 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~114 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2022 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #95 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#99). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 18% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 37 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 37.0 |
| Defense | 418 tackles, 11 sacks, 10 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.3 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.75" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #95 overall (#9 OLB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 96 | Vincent Valentine | redraft #185 |
| 97 | Rees Odhiambo | redraft #167 |
| 98 | Justin Simmons | redraft #18 |
| 100 | Connor Cook | redraft #231 |
| 101 | Charles Tapper | redraft #226 |
| 102 | Joshua Perry | redraft #203 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.