Clyde Gates
WR, Abilene Christian · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #111 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #77 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #111: teams let him slide 34 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Abilene Christian: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at 192 lbs: faster than 96% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 16 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 30 rec, 365 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 192 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.31 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| Arm / hand | 30.6" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #77 overall (#11 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 108 | Quinton Carter | redraft #132 |
| 109 | Colin McCarthy | redraft #104 |
| 110 | David Arkin | redraft #225 |
| 112 | Greg Salas | redraft #161 |
| 113 | Chimdi Chekwa | redraft #177 |
| 114 | Cecil Shorts | redraft #78 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.