David Arkin
G, Missouri State · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #110 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 3 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2016 (~3%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #138 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#110).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri State: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.31 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 26% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 3 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.31 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.6 s |
| Shuttle | 4.63 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.7" / 10.4" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #138 overall (#7 G) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 107 | Kris Durham | redraft #147 |
| 108 | Quinton Carter | redraft #132 |
| 109 | Colin McCarthy | redraft #104 |
| 111 | Clyde Gates | redraft #175 |
| 112 | Greg Salas | redraft #161 |
| 113 | Chimdi Chekwa | redraft #177 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.