Cecil Shorts
WR, Mount Union · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #114 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #129 (#17 at his position), close to where he went (#114). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mount Union: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 205 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 70 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2016 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 70 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Passing | 3/3, 53 yds, 2 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 11 att, 43 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 229 rec, 2,979 yds, 14 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 205 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 6.5 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #129 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 111 | Clyde Gates | redraft #175 |
| 112 | Greg Salas | redraft #161 |
| 113 | Chimdi Chekwa | redraft #177 |
| 115 | Kendall Hunter | redraft #94 |
| 116 | Casey Matthews | redraft #105 |
| 117 | James Brewer | redraft #155 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.