Casey Matthews
LB, Oregon · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~100%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #135 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#116).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 14% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| Defense | 81 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 8.399" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #135 overall (#6 LB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 113 | Chimdi Chekwa | redraft #177 |
| 114 | Cecil Shorts | redraft #78 |
| 115 | Kendall Hunter | redraft #94 |
| 117 | James Brewer | redraft #155 |
| 118 | Jalil Brown | redraft #159 |
| 119 | Delone Carter | redraft #167 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.