Chris Perry
RB, Michigan · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 177 att, 606 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 83 rec, 474 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#3 RB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 23 | Marcus Tubbs | redraft #111 |
| 24 | Steven Jackson | redraft #9 |
| 25 | Ahmad Carroll | redraft #96 |
| 27 | Jason Babin | redraft #28 |
| 28 | Chris Gamble | redraft #31 |
| 29 | Michael Jenkins | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.