Chris Gamble
DB, Ohio St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #28 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 123 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2012 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#28).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 33% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 123 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| Defense | 440 tackles, 1 sacks, 27 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#3 DB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 25 | Ahmad Carroll | redraft #96 |
| 26 | Chris Perry | redraft #109 |
| 27 | Jason Babin | redraft #28 |
| 29 | Michael Jenkins | redraft #36 |
| 30 | Kevin Jones | redraft #67 |
| 31 | Rashaun Woods | redraft #184 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.