Steven Jackson
RB, Oregon St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #24 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#24). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 45% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 160 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2015 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 160 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 75 |
| Passing | 1/1, 2 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2764 att, 11,438 yds, 69 TD |
| Receiving | 461 rec, 3,683 yds, 9 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#1 RB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 21 | Vince Wilfork | redraft #6 |
| 22 | J.P. Losman | redraft #87 |
| 23 | Marcus Tubbs | redraft #111 |
| 25 | Ahmad Carroll | redraft #96 |
| 26 | Chris Perry | redraft #109 |
| 27 | Jason Babin | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.