Vince Wilfork
NT, Miami (FL) · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #21 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 189 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2016 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#21). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.08 40-yard dash at 323 lbs: faster than 22% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
NT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 189 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 90 |
| Defense | 367 tackles, 16 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 323 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.08 s |
| Bench press | 36 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#1 NT) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 18 | Will Smith | redraft #23 |
| 19 | Vernon Carey | redraft #32 |
| 20 | Kenechi Udeze | redraft #85 |
| 22 | J.P. Losman | redraft #87 |
| 23 | Marcus Tubbs | redraft #111 |
| 24 | Steven Jackson | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.