Chandler Jones
DE, Syracuse · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #21 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 154 of ~178 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2022 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#21). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Syracuse: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.77 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 74% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 154 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 77 |
| Defense | 352 tackles, 112 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.77 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#2 DE) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 18 | Melvin Ingram | redraft #23 |
| 19 | Shea McClellin | redraft #89 |
| 20 | Kendall Wright | redraft #62 |
| 22 | Brandon Weeden | redraft #102 |
| 23 | Riley Reiff | redraft #18 |
| 24 | David DeCastro | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.