Brandon Weeden
QB, Oklahoma St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
28 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2018 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #48 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#22).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 28% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Passing | 559/965, 6,462 yds, 31 TD, 30 INT |
| Rushing | 62 att, 200 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 28 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #48 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 19 | Shea McClellin | redraft #89 |
| 20 | Kendall Wright | redraft #62 |
| 21 | Chandler Jones | redraft #9 |
| 23 | Riley Reiff | redraft #18 |
| 24 | David DeCastro | redraft #15 |
| 25 | Dont'a Hightower | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.