Chad Henne
QB, Michigan · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#57).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.92 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 22% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 78 of ~242 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2022 (~32%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 78 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 26 |
| Passing | 1200/2015, 13,290 yds, 60 TD, 63 INT |
| Rushing | 143 att, 351 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.92 s |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 54 | Jason Jones | redraft #42 |
| 55 | Ray Rice | redraft #13 |
| 56 | Brian Brohm | redraft #214 |
| 58 | Dexter Jackson | redraft #206 |
| 59 | Mike Pollak | redraft #66 |
| 60 | Pat Lee | redraft #155 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.