Pat Lee
DB, Auburn · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #60 (GNB)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 47 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2012 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#60).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 200 lbs: faster than 80% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 47 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 50 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 200 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.3 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#8 DB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 57 | Chad Henne | redraft #68 |
| 58 | Dexter Jackson | redraft #206 |
| 59 | Mike Pollak | redraft #66 |
| 61 | Martellus Bennett | redraft #38 |
| 62 | Terrence Wheatley | redraft #186 |
| 63 | Terrell Thomas | redraft #87 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.