Ray Rice
RB, Rutgers · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #55 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 92 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2013 (~96%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #51 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#55). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Rutgers: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 82% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| Passing | 1/2, 1 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1430 att, 6,180 yds, 37 TD |
| Receiving | 369 rec, 3,034 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #51 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 52 | Quentin Groves | redraft #92 |
| 53 | Limas Sweed | redraft #178 |
| 54 | Jason Jones | redraft #42 |
| 56 | Brian Brohm | redraft #214 |
| 57 | Chad Henne | redraft #68 |
| 58 | Dexter Jackson | redraft #206 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.