Zach Randolph
PF, Michigan State · 2001 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (POR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #8 overall (#23 at his position), but he lasted until pick #19: teams let him slide 11 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1116 games over 17 NBA seasons (~80% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
19.9 years old on draft night (born 1981-07-16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 17 |
| Games | 1116 |
| Minutes / game | 31.0 |
| Points / game | 16.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 9.1 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 81.1 |
| VORP | 18.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.2 |
The 2001 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2001 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 270 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.9 |
| Born | Marion, IN |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #8 overall (#23 PF) |
Picked around him 2001 redraft
| 16 | Kirk Haston | redraft #43 |
| 17 | Michael Bradley | redraft #31 |
| 18 | Jason Collins | redraft #21 |
| 20 | Brendan Haywood | redraft #14 |
| 21 | Joseph Forte | redraft #42 |
| 22 | Jeryl Sasser | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.