Jason Collins
C, Stanford · 2001 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #18 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#18 at his position), close to where he went (#18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.6 years old on draft night (born 1978-12-02).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Stanford.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 735 games over 13 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 735 |
| Minutes / game | 20.4 |
| Points / game | 3.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.1 |
| VORP | -6.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.7 |
The 2001 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2001 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 255 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.6 |
| Born | North Hollywood, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#18 C) |
Picked around him 2001 redraft
| 15 | Steven Hunter | redraft #26 |
| 16 | Kirk Haston | redraft #43 |
| 17 | Michael Bradley | redraft #31 |
| 19 | Zach Randolph | redraft #7 |
| 20 | Brendan Haywood | redraft #14 |
| 21 | Joseph Forte | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.