Tobias Harris
PF, Tennessee · 2011 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (CHA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 1033 games over 15 NBA seasons (~84% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#19). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.9 years old on draft night (born 1992-07-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Tennessee.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 8" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 15 |
| Games | 1033 |
| Minutes / game | 31.4 |
| Points / game | 15.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 80.6 |
| VORP | 24.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.0 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 223 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 18.9 |
| Born | Dix Hills, NY |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#5 PF) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 16 | Nikola Vučević | redraft #4 |
| 17 | Iman Shumpert | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Chris Singleton | redraft #37 |
| 20 | Donatas Motiejūnas | redraft #31 |
| 21 | Nolan Smith | redraft #51 |
| 22 | Kenneth Faried | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.