Nolan Smith
SG, Duke · 2011 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #21 (POR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#5 at his position); he went #21, 19 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 84 games over 2 NBA seasons (~51% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
22.9 years old on draft night (born 1988-07-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 6" at 6' 4" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 84 |
| Minutes / game | 9.9 |
| Points / game | 3.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.0 |
| Assists / game | 1.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.8 |
| VORP | -0.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -6.0 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 188 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 6" |
| Age on draft night | 22.9 |
| Born | Mouth of Wilson, Va. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 18 | Chris Singleton | redraft #37 |
| 19 | Tobias Harris | redraft #5 |
| 20 | Donatas Motiejūnas | redraft #31 |
| 22 | Kenneth Faried | redraft #11 |
| 23 | Nikola Mirotić | redraft #19 |
| 24 | Reggie Jackson | redraft #13 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.