Nikola Mirotić
SF · 2011 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #23 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.4 years old on draft night (born 1991-02-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Montenegro.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 1" at 6' 10" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 319 games over 5 NBA seasons (~78% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 5 |
| Games | 319 |
| Minutes / game | 24.2 |
| Points / game | 12.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.8 |
| VORP | 7.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.6 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 226 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 1" |
| Age on draft night | 20.4 |
| Born | Montenegro |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#3 SF) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 20 | Donatas Motiejūnas | redraft #31 |
| 21 | Nolan Smith | redraft #51 |
| 22 | Kenneth Faried | redraft #11 |
| 24 | Reggie Jackson | redraft #13 |
| 25 | MarShon Brooks | redraft #33 |
| 26 | Jordan Hamilton | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.