Nikola Vučević
C, USC · 2011 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #16 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#16). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.7 years old on draft night (born 1990-10-24).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at USC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 5" at 7' 0" tall (+5.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1038 games over 16 NBA seasons (~79% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 1038 |
| Minutes / game | 31.1 |
| Points / game | 17.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 10.3 |
| Assists / game | 2.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 84.3 |
| VORP | 33.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.1 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 260 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 20.7 |
| Born | Bar, Montenegro |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#3 C) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 13 | Markieff Morris | redraft #21 |
| 14 | Marcus Morris | redraft #12 |
| 15 | Kawhi Leonard | redraft #2 |
| 17 | Iman Shumpert | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Chris Singleton | redraft #37 |
| 19 | Tobias Harris | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.